Climate Change Projections and Effects:
Climate Change will affect different parts of the world differently. New Delhi, spreading along the banks of river Yamuna into the Indo-Gangetic planes experiences sub-tropical climatic regime. Two significant effects of climate change it is projected to experience are extreme rainfall events and heat wave. The rainfall in monsoon season shows a significant increasing trend (72.2 mm over average) over the Delhi region over the past two decades as well as an intensified precipitation with inequitable distribution due to the city receiving most of its monsoon showers during two months of Aug and Sept. July, 2013 witnessed several flash flooding events with heaviest recorded rainfall of 123 mm in 4 hour duration, marking one of the decade’s heaviest spells. Further, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) recognized heat wave as a key trend in India with an increase in frequency of hot days. IPCC Fifth assessment report (2013) observed an Increase in frequency and persistency of extreme temperature events over the last decade.
The regional affects that Delhi will most likely face are food shortage and associated price rise owing to the change in monsoon rainfall patterns (World Bank, 2013). Some of the effects can be seen today with delay of monsoon season, inadequate, unseasonal and unpredictable rainfall being blamed for food shortage. The arable land is projected to decrease in sub tropics thus putting additional pressure on food resources. The Delhi will also most likely attract “Climate Refugees” from areas affected by floods, draught, sea level rise etc. adding to the population pressure of the city already a home to over 2 million people.
Current and Future Challenges:
In a city, already grappling with insufficient infrastructure to manage storm water, drinking water, power and solid waste, and ecological degradation the direct and indirect effects of climate change will only worsen the situation not only adding pressure on available infrastructure but bringing fresh challenges to the fore like perpetuation of water borne diseases, heat wave victims, food shortages etc.
Cohesive Action for Long Term Sustainable and Climate Resilient Development:
Some of the key areas for action (adaptation and mitigation) that can be identified in view of climate change challenges discussed above are listed:
Adaptation:
• Sustainable Water Management: This includes storm water management using natural systems and watershed management to increase local ground water recharge and decrease pressure on piped conveyance infrastructure. Also, it entails decentralized grey and black water treatment, recycling and reuse to decrease demand of fresh water for non-potable use.
• Planting of drought resilient vegetation, green roofs and shaded streets to decrease heat island effect as coherent measures to adapt to heat wave and influence favorable micro climate.
• Urban agriculture in city’s open spaces to grow food locally.
• Investment in public health and disaster preparedness.
Mitigation:
• Ecological preservation including protection of forests, sensitive eco-systems such as wetlands, riparian zones and depolluting water bodies and streams and forest plantation drives to ensure health of ecosystems, protect bio-diversity and fasten carbon-sequestration.
• Sustainable city planning with sustainable transportation primarily robust public transportation, transit oriented development for reduced car dependence, sprawl control, and efficient land use management.
• Sustainable energy production and waste management systems.
• Investment in clean technologies and innovation.
• Aggressive carbon reduction targets for the city: Subsidies, tax benefits and other encouraging incentives for green businesses and industries and conversely adopting policies that control and regulate emissions in carbon intensive ones.
• Public outreach and consensus building on climate change action. Cooperation and policy alignment at national, state and community level.
These are just some of the actions we can take to make sure we build a sustainable, climate resilient and progressive future for the city. Nonetheless there is no denying the fact that we need to act now, when the effects of climate change are already surfacing and we are on a dangerous irreversible path of 4C global warming that will alter the state of world as we know it. Each person's, community's, city's and nation's contribution is significant and Delhi being the capital city must lead the way for rest of the nation in building a sustainable, carbon conscious city.
“By acting now, acting together and acting differently, we will be able to transition to a low emissions, climate resilient development path and hold warming below 2°C.” Source: WDR 2010: Development and Climate Change
Climate Change will affect different parts of the world differently. New Delhi, spreading along the banks of river Yamuna into the Indo-Gangetic planes experiences sub-tropical climatic regime. Two significant effects of climate change it is projected to experience are extreme rainfall events and heat wave. The rainfall in monsoon season shows a significant increasing trend (72.2 mm over average) over the Delhi region over the past two decades as well as an intensified precipitation with inequitable distribution due to the city receiving most of its monsoon showers during two months of Aug and Sept. July, 2013 witnessed several flash flooding events with heaviest recorded rainfall of 123 mm in 4 hour duration, marking one of the decade’s heaviest spells. Further, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) recognized heat wave as a key trend in India with an increase in frequency of hot days. IPCC Fifth assessment report (2013) observed an Increase in frequency and persistency of extreme temperature events over the last decade.
The regional affects that Delhi will most likely face are food shortage and associated price rise owing to the change in monsoon rainfall patterns (World Bank, 2013). Some of the effects can be seen today with delay of monsoon season, inadequate, unseasonal and unpredictable rainfall being blamed for food shortage. The arable land is projected to decrease in sub tropics thus putting additional pressure on food resources. The Delhi will also most likely attract “Climate Refugees” from areas affected by floods, draught, sea level rise etc. adding to the population pressure of the city already a home to over 2 million people.
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| Multimodel mean of percentage of months during 2080-2100 warmer than 3 (top), 4 (middle) and 5 sigma(bottom) relative to present day climatology. Source: Turn Down the Heat, World Bank |
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| Comparison of 2C and 4C precipitation for South Asia. Source: Turn Down the Heat , World Bank |
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| Increase in frequency of warm days and nights and decrease in cold ones. Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report |
Current and Future Challenges:
Extreme rainfall events lead to severe inundation of the city causing damage to properties, roads, power supply and water borne diseases due to contamination of water or breeding of mosquitoes. Heat wave has known to cause heat strokes, dehydration and death in extreme cases. Water shortages are peculiar in summers in New Delhi that adds to effect of heat wave. The storm water management system of the city currently falls short during even normal rainfall and is unable to quickly direct and dispose water causing inundation of streets and properties. In future, this situation will only worsen due to increased intensity of rainfall if its drainage system remains unchanged.
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| Seasonal inundation every monsoons brings city to a halt. Source: Mail Online India |
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| Increasing food shortage and price rise.Source: Hindustan Times |
Delhi also suffers from water scarcity due to failure of municipality to develop sufficient water-supply infrastructure in response to immense demand and currently the limited supply is substituted by illegal ground water extraction. Delhi being is sub tropics barring the few extreme precipitation events, is projected to become “drier” as a result of climate change. In future, this might pose a serious concern when the city is already competing for water and ground water table has run low on account of decades of extraction. Further, the degradation of eco-sensitive lands like riparian zones, wetlands and drainage streams due to rapid urbanization has resulted in loss of bio-diversity as well as reduced ground water recharge making city drier and hotter than usual, something which climate change with intensify. It’s crucial that these lands are protected to maintain a healthy eco system and micro-climate that is comfortable for its inhabitants.
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| Severe water crisis looming over the city.Source: India Today |
Hence, it’s crucial that the policy makers act now, assess linear and non-linear impacts of climate change and plan adequate adaptation and mitigation measures to make city resilient to climate change. Further, as Christine Lagarde, Managing director at World Bank states that fighting climate change presents an opportunity to deal with three issues of environment, equity and economic prosperity all at once, we can and should use climate change policy in Delhi to address not only future imminent problems but also encompass current challenges and plan for a sustainable, equitable and progressive society all at once.
Some of the key areas for action (adaptation and mitigation) that can be identified in view of climate change challenges discussed above are listed:
Adaptation:
• Sustainable Water Management: This includes storm water management using natural systems and watershed management to increase local ground water recharge and decrease pressure on piped conveyance infrastructure. Also, it entails decentralized grey and black water treatment, recycling and reuse to decrease demand of fresh water for non-potable use.
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| Restoring and preserving the city's eco-systems is key to sustainability. Shown here is Cheong Gye Cheong stream in South Korea, which was restored to its original ecological function and also made a public recreational space adding to charm of the city. Source: The Urbanist Dispatch |
• Planting of drought resilient vegetation, green roofs and shaded streets to decrease heat island effect as coherent measures to adapt to heat wave and influence favorable micro climate.
• Urban agriculture in city’s open spaces to grow food locally.
• Investment in public health and disaster preparedness.
Mitigation:
• Ecological preservation including protection of forests, sensitive eco-systems such as wetlands, riparian zones and depolluting water bodies and streams and forest plantation drives to ensure health of ecosystems, protect bio-diversity and fasten carbon-sequestration.
• Sustainable city planning with sustainable transportation primarily robust public transportation, transit oriented development for reduced car dependence, sprawl control, and efficient land use management.
 |
| A robust public transportation saves energy and cost. Picture of BRT in Bogota. Source: Curitiba in English |
• Sustainable energy production and waste management systems.
• Investment in clean technologies and innovation.
• Aggressive carbon reduction targets for the city: Subsidies, tax benefits and other encouraging incentives for green businesses and industries and conversely adopting policies that control and regulate emissions in carbon intensive ones.
• Public outreach and consensus building on climate change action. Cooperation and policy alignment at national, state and community level.
These are just some of the actions we can take to make sure we build a sustainable, climate resilient and progressive future for the city. Nonetheless there is no denying the fact that we need to act now, when the effects of climate change are already surfacing and we are on a dangerous irreversible path of 4C global warming that will alter the state of world as we know it. Each person's, community's, city's and nation's contribution is significant and Delhi being the capital city must lead the way for rest of the nation in building a sustainable, carbon conscious city.
“By acting now, acting together and acting differently, we will be able to transition to a low emissions, climate resilient development path and hold warming below 2°C.” Source: WDR 2010: Development and Climate Change
